GLOBAL WARMING CONCLUSIONS

After our discussion on the main contributors to global warming and environmental change, here is a wrap up of what we can possibly conclude from research and data.

Possible conclusions and predictions:

Overall, the increasing global demand for meat is most likely to negative effect the environment. 

1) Demand

Since the demand for meat is increasing (perhaps even exponentially) through developing countries, increase in incomes, population growth and urbanisation, the amount of livestock would probably increase since suppliers and those in the industry will see this as a profitable opportunity. Predicted by WHO, annual meat production is projected to increase from 218 million tonnes in 1997 - 1999 to 376 million tonnes by 2030.

2) Supply - Large scale production

Since more space will be needed for large scale production of meat, whether it is areas for the livestock to live and graze, but also slaughter houses. This means there are implications for these processes to become more closely located to urban centres. By being in close proximity with urban centres, a range of environmental and health risks will potentially exist, such as those mentioned before. Land and water requirements would lead to a degradation and depletion of resources. 

3) Urbanisation and development

Due to urbanisation, development in certain countries and technological improvements, transportation of meats are becoming more efficient. This has also spurred on a 'taste for meat'  This is evident in city dwellers who have a varied diet rich in animal proteins and fats, and characterized by higher consumption of meat, poultry, milk and other dairy products. This can be seen in the table below. There is a significant increase in meat consumption in Brazil and China. However it can be seen that the consumption in North America and other developed countries remain at a much higher level. 

Per capita consumption of livestock products

Region	Meat (kg per year)			Milk (kg per year)
	1964 - 1966	1997 - 1999	2030	1964 - 1966	1997 - 1999	2030
World	24.2	36.4	45.3	73.9	78.1	89.5
Developing countries	10.2	25.5	36.7	28.0	44.6	65.8
Near East and North Africa	11.9	21.2	35.0	68.6	72.3	89.9
Sub-Saharan Africaa	9.9	9.4	13.4	28.5	29.1	33.8
Latin America and the Caribbean	31.7	53.8	76.6	80.1	110.2	139.8
East Asia	8.7	37.7	58.5	3.6	10.0	17.8
South Asia	3.9	5.3	11.7	37.0	67.5	106.9
Industrialized countries	61.5	88.2	100.1	185.5	212.2	221.0
Transition countries	42.5	46.2	60.7	156.6	159.1	178.7

^a Excludes South Africa.

Source: Adapted from reference 4 with the permission of the publisher.

As shown, the global demand is increasing in general, but is especially prominent in the BRICS, the five main emerging national economies which represent the trend in growing meat demand within countries with increasing income and wealth. 

The flip side

Although meat consumption can be seen to be increasing in the BRICS, it has actually stagnated in the U.S. according to Business Insider. Perhaps it can be argued that more educated and industrialised the countries are, despite having seen a rapid increase in meat production since 1950s, it has recently stagnated. For example, in the U.S., consumption has dropped by 9% from 2007 to 2012. This could be due to low-meat trends, and more educated consumers who are more concerned with the source of the meats. Furthermore, due to the horse meat scandal which was marketed as beef in early 2013, consumers have become more cautious about what they are eating and the credibility of food labels.

Conclusions:

Perhaps the key conclusion here, is trying to educate consumers on the health risks, environmental risks and the reality of how livestock are treated which can then reduce demand for meat. Although policy measures can be put into place to help reduce the harmful effects, consumers also play a big part too.

According to www.virtualcentre.org, the best way to improve efficiency is to price natural resources with the externalities considered. This is because when public resources are underpriced, it causes overexploitation. As a result, such a pricing strategy is able to allow individuals who use the resources to be mindful of the real cost of its usage.

Efforts here can lead to large and multiple payoffs.

Possible solutions:

To reduce greenhouse gases that have been and will be emitted as a result of the livestock sector, a few solutions have been raised in 'Livestock's Long Shadow':

• Restore historical losses through conservation tillage
• Agroforestry (a more sustainable land use system in which trees or shrubs are grown around or among crops to promote more healthy, sustainable and productive land usage)
• Restoration of desertified pastures
• Methane emissions: improved diets to reduce enteric fermentation, improved manure management, biogas
• Nitrogen emissions: improved diets and manure management
• Use tradable rights for natural resources
• Remove damaging subsidies and alter the price for the resources in order to take into account the environmental externalities

How can we move on from here?

Educate yourself about meat production and consumption. So stay tuned... *wink

 

Happy Meatless Monday! Tune in next Monday for a new post on the consumption patterns by country!